Artificial Intelligence, jobs and the quarterly earnings panic

As I was reading a series of articles about artificial intelligence (AI) I was struck by the zeal, of the technology acolytes of Silicon Valley, for a future without jobs. In 1969 Zager and Evans wrote in their song In the Year 2525 “Your arms hangin' limp at your sides/Your legs got nothin' to do/Some machine's doin' that for you”. The song was not an exhortation, it was a warning.

Today AI is not remotely near human reasoning, but as it develops it will be a disruptive force beginning with the lowest skilled jobs in our society, but it won’t stop there. As more and more tasks fall to AI’s progression one has to consider where will the demand come from for all these goods and services created through automation? How do we expect a displaced worker to buy things?

Let’s look for a moment at how we got here and I am not talking about the technology. In boardrooms and “C” suites around the globe eyes light up when new ways to cut cost arise and that of course is the basis of free market competition. Improve efficiency to lower prices. The context for this is what concerns me. When an organization is too weak to think beyond today’s earnings and tomorrow’s stock price how can they be expected to think about elementary school children who will be their future managers. This corporate short-termism is pernicious. Longer term thinking should point us toward providing the best resource for any employer. Having the best and brightest workers available to innovate and be productive. Unfortunately the opposite is true today. The news is filled with hiring managers bemoaning the dearth of people with the skills to fill their current job openings.

It seems to be in the best interest of society to create a vast opportunity for all citizens by offering an educational experience the focuses not just on the subjects, but life time skills like critical thinking and the need, and more importantly the desire, to be a lifelong student. These are the skills that allow people to transition seamlessly from job to job and career to career.

Let’s focus on the opportunity the outcome will follow

Too often we focus on correcting the outcome which is shorthand for redistribution of wealth which, as F.A. Hayek said, requires coercion. Therein lies the source of our current polarization and conflict. Some refuse to accept that educational opportunity is not universally available. Others want to create a guaranteed outcome. Both are wrong. What we do all agree on is the welfare of our children and that manifests itself in their education.

We talk about public and private partnerships with great hope and expectation. What better purpose than to improve education. We should not kid ourselves though, meaningful improvement in education will be expensive, but anything worthwhile or long-lasting usually is. A case in point, U.S. non-farm productivity growth averaged 2.8% from 1947 until 1973 a feat never reproduced before or after, at any time. The primary catalyst was the G.I. Bill.

The G.I. Bill started by educating WWII veterans, who in turn started this economic boom and instilled the value of education in at least two successive generations. More than 20 million veterans have received their college educations since the original GI Bill in 1944 at a cost of $120 billion, meanwhile U. S. GDP rose from $2T to $17T over the course.

I am concerned when panacean solutions like universal basic income are proposed, not because I am necessarily against it, but because I see it as giving up on universal opportunity for a good education. We have proof of the value of making education available to all, what are we waiting on?

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